Friday, July 4, 2008

I will be gone for the remainder of the summer.

Next weekend, I'm taking a solo road trip from Austin, TX up to Yellowstone. I'm planning to backpack out into the middle of the wilderness to stalk wildlife and hopefully capture their natural behaviors. You can bet there will be pictures to follow that trip. I've transitioned into a Peter Lik styled panoramic landscape phase of my photography, so I'm hoping to get some great shots.

I will probably be gone at least two weeks. It will take at least four days to drive up to Wyoming and back.

When I get back from that trip, I'm headed back up to Alaska for the first two weeks of August. I have a cousin getting married, but I'm also going to largely be doing a repeat of last year's trip. The main difference is I will be headed to Katmai National Park to photograph the grizzlies catching spawning salmon.

When I come back from that trip, I'm headed on a two-week road trip through middle America. I'll be headed out to national parks in Arizona, Utah, and into Idaho for another wedding. Then it's up to Glacier National Park, and then back down through Colorado.

When I get back from that trip, there is a 75% chance I'll be headed to Lebanon to visit a Harvard classmate I haven't seen since I left for Tanzania last year. That's subject to change should Israel attack Iran in the next three months, which some very smart foreign policy experts put at about 50/50 odds of happening (Israel is gassing up the planes as we speak). Should this happen, look for oil to hit $250 per barrel. Should Iran follow through on its threat to shut down the straight where middle eastern oil flows, look for $350-$400 per barrel. I'm pretty happy to be 26 now and officially one year too old to be registered with selective services (the U.S. military draft).

So where should you be investing right now? In banks failing. If you don't want to short banks, buy things that can adjust to inflation. I put odds at 90% that a major bank will fail in the next three months. This is what happens when one sees too much libertarian influence in market regulators. When Charlie Munger -the staunch Republican Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway - complains that the Fed has "overdosed on Ayn Rand" you know things are bad.

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