Saturday, April 11, 2009

GDP is going to be bad.

CR had a pretty good post about two weeks ago explaining his prognosis for a 6-8% decline in GDP (with much of that due to the long-awaited collapse of commercial real estate finally arriving).

I personally expect the low end of that range, roughly matching last quarter's number. For fun, My prediction is 6%, but let's not get caught up in false precision. The important thing here is to pull back and understand that the economy is still contracting in a massive, massive way.

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